სერგი კაპანაძის ინტერვიუ "LA RAZÓN"-ში (14 აპრილი, 2014) "მოსკოვის ხელი"
13 მაისი, 2014
0
Ukrainian special forces exchanged gunfire with a pro Russia militia and it looks like the tension is getting even higher. What are the consequences for Ukraine? And for the region?
- Ukraine now faces a dilemma. Should they intervene and risk further escalation of the situation, or should they remain on standby and let the country slip into the chaos. They already lost Crimea to Russia. Ukrainian Government did not use force, did not fire back, did not respond to the looming crisis. It is understandable, that even if they had intervened, probably that would have led to the bloodshed and still the Crimea would have been lost. Now the situation is unfolding according to the same scenario as in Crimea. Russia is trying to use the same card, challenging, even daring Ukraine to retaliate and then to see further escalation of situation and even military invasion. This is the dilemma not only for Ukraine, but for other countries of the Eastern Partnership as well. What happens, if Russia moves its military further into Georgian territory? Should the Georgian Government respond, or should it let it go? Let’s make no mistake, not reacting to such a blatant infringement of territorial integrity destroys state, its sovereignty, public morale, standing of the Government, even institutions. But when the alternative is bloodshed, guaranteed loss of war and possibility of a large scale military aggression, Kiev faces a conundrum.
Lavrov has warned that if Kiev threats to use force against people in the South-east, prospects for further cooperation on the Ukrainian issue, including a planned four party meeting in Geneva, will be foiled". Do you think that meeting will take place? What can the international community really do?
- Russia is now trying to build a good hand before the talks start in Geneva. Since everyone wants talks, US, EU, Kiev – Russia will now try to get as much advantage on the ground as possible, so that on the one hand, they can easily walk out of the planned discussions, if West retaliates with more sanctions, or if the West lets it go, they find oneself in a relatively better bargaining situation on Wednesday and the days to come.
The current unrest now in those southeast´s cities of Ukraine, are they motivated and inspired in Moscow?
- There is simply no doubt that the unrest is inspired from abroad, by Moscow. Russia’s attempts to justify it are becoming comical as time passes. In Crimea, what Russia claimed was a local “self defense force”, was actually a Russian trained and seconded force, comprising of special services and military. All the demonstrations were staged with Russian agent provocateurs on the ground. Same is happening in Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkov in the recent days. This is exactly the same logic that Moscow applied in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
