Red Alert - Edition 2
15 November, 2021
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According to Edison Research and Formula TV exit poll, which was most accurate in predicting 2020 Parliamentary elections results, Georgian Dream (GD) candidate Kakha Kaladze received 43% of the vote, United National Movement’s (UNM) leader Nika Melia - 39%. Third place went to former GD Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia with 7%. Edison Research party ratings gave GD - 46%, UNM - 33% and Gakharia’s party For Georgia - 6%.
Government propaganda TV Channel Imedi TV showed “weighed” exit poll results, in which Kaladze received 51.3% and Melia - 34.6%. Nationwide party ratings showed GD receiving 47.6%, UNM - 27.1% and Gakharia’s party For Georgia - 6.8%. In 2020 Imedi exit polls deviated heavily from official results in favor of the Georgian Dream.
Opposition minded Mtavari TV had its exit poll conducted by IPSOS. According to IPSOS, Melia beat Kaladze by 0.6%, garnering 40.8 over Kaladze’s 40.2. Gakharia finished third with 8.7%. In 2020 IPSOS exit poll deviated heavily from official results in favor of the United National Movement.
The Central Election Commission will start publishing official results after midnight. Last time in 2020 first results appeared only after 4 am, i.e. 8 hours after the polls were closed. Meanwhile, protocols will be collected by the parties and civil society organizations and uploaded at various web sites, including the parallel CEC web portal.
Three major questions were to be answered in today’s local elections. First, whether Georgian Dream would clear 43%, a necessary threshold to call new Parliamentary elections, as pledged through a political agreement mediated by the European Council President Charles Michel. The second question was how Georgians would react to Mikheil Saakashvili’s imprisonment on October 1. The third question had to do about the winner of Tbilisi - the largest city housing at least ⅓ of Georgia’s population. These exit polls show that on these questions answers are still inconclusive. However, GD and UNM Headquarters both celebrated the win after they saw the first numbers. Not a surprise in highly polarized Georgian politics.
