Elections 2021: Second rounds - make-or-break for GD, Ivanishvili, UNM, Saakashvili, Gakharia, smaller parties
19 October, 2021
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As Abraham Lincoln once said, “the ballot is stronger than the bullet”. Georgians will have a chance to prove this in the second round of local elections on October 30. While the elections do not directly decide the fate of power, the strong showing of opposition United National Movement (UNM) in the first round, return and arrest of Mikheil Saakashvili and heavy polarization at the expense of smaller parties make the second round a make-or-break moment for many actors.
For Ivanishvili, his personal role as an informal ruler is at stake. If UNM wins the second round, Ivanishvili will be under pressure to call early elections, since maintaining power without controlling major cities would be next to impossible. If he decides to ignore the outcomes, his legitimacy will be at stake as never before. For the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party and UNM, the power in major cities is up for grabs. Losing even one of the five self-governing cities would be a beginning of an end for GD and the beginning of a new beginning for UNM and wider opposition.
For Misha, who has been on hunger strike since his arrest, it is an all-in situation. Losing elections could mean him spending a long time behind the bars, while a win could return him to power, albeit not imminently. For former PM Giorgi Gakharia, who garnered 9.4% of votes in Tbilisi it is all about king-making. Without him many local councils will not have majorities, thus he holds the key in determining who will rule in the regions. And for the smaller parties whether they back UNM in the second rounds (e.g. Lelo, European Georgia, Girchi - More Freedom, Droa), or refrain from clear positioning (e.g. Strategy the Builder), it is all about whether they will stay afloat come November 1. On October 20, UNM’s Tbilisi Mayoral candidate Nika Melia unveiled a wide coalition with other pro-Western opposition parties - something new in Georgian politics. The viability of such an alliance will also be tested in the second round.
October has been a hot political month in Georgia. Misha’s return mobilized his supporters. Almost 70 thousand gathered on October 14 in the central square in the largest rally in 9 years, reminiscent of Ivanishvili-organized GD supporters’ rally before the October 1, 2012 elections. Huge rallies in Georgia intend to show strength, and strength was indeed shown. Georgian Dream on the other hand showed weakness - first by attempting to block buses transporting rally participants from the regions, then by downplaying the number of people in the Freedom square to 10-15 thousand and finally by organizing anti-Misha rallies in front of the Rustavi prison, where Saakashvili is held. Rhetoric has remained bitter too. While UNM is betting on Misha’s factor, hoping to further galvanize the voters and increase opposition-minded voter turnout, GD is pursuing its traditional demonizing rhetoric, seldom mentioning opposition without the epithet “radical”, blaming the opposition for inciting violence, spreading fake news on Saakashvili actually not being on hunger strike and ringing alarm bells that opposition plans to destabilize the country after the second rounds.
According to the Central Election Commission final results on October 2, during the first round of local elections, GD garnered 46% of the votes, UNM - 30% and Gakharia’s For Georgia - 7.8%. This allows the GD to claim victory and put an end to the discussions about the new Parliamentary elections - a pledge they took with European Council’s President Charles Michel, but on which they then backtracked. However, GD now has a different challenge - it needs to win major towns, to show that it actually has support in urban areas. In all five self-governing cities of Georgia (Tbilisi, Kutaisi, Batumi, Rustavi, Poti), GD candidates failed to win the elections in the first round. In fact UNM won the two largest cities after Tbilisi - Kutaisi (UNM candidate Dekanoidze - 43.3%, GD candidate Khakhaleishvili - 41.4%) and Batumi (UNM candidate Kirtadze - 41.9%, GD candidate Chikovani - 41%). In Poti, former mayor of Tbilisi Gigi Ugulava garnered 38% while his GD opponent Vacharadze grabbed 46.8% and in Rustavi UNM’s David Kirkitadze narrowly trails behind GD’s Nino Latsabidze - 43.5% vs 44.8%.
The biggest battle was fought in Tbilisi - Nika Melia, UNM’s Chairman is 11 points behind the current mayor Kakha Kaladze (34% vs 45%). However, Tbilisi had the most candidates (16) and the lost votes and is usually opposition minded. Nika Melia’s father, Anzor Melia, who was on the ballot in Zugdidi fought his battle better than his son - getting 46.8% as opposed to 41.15% of GD’s Mamuka Tsotseria. Other major towns, like Telavi (45.4% UNM vs 46.7% GD), Khashuri (34.6% UNM vs 43.7 GD) and Senaki (42.35% UNM vs 40.2% GD) also hang in balance.
The Georgian Dream faces the biggest threat in Zugdidi, the major town of Samegrelo - traditionally a highly polarized region. Zugdidi is the only town where the UNM candidate has a 5%+ advantage. Out of 15 majoritarian local council seats, UNM already secured 8, as opposed to GD’s 6, with one second-round stand-off. However, initially, UNM won 9 majoritarians, but a later recount by the district election commission (DEC), stripped UNM one place and declared GD candidate a winner. The second round in Zugdidi will determine whether GD will lose a major town for the first time during its 9-year rule. Likewise, local councils in Kutaisi, Batumi, Rustavi and Telavi are still up for grabs.
Enter Giorgi Gakharia, former Prime Minister and leader of the For Georgia Party. Gakharia, who was demonized by the GD as a traitor for leaving the party during a critical moment in February 2021, and is despised by the opposition for his role in forcefully dispersing June 20, 2019, anti-occupation rally, has campaigned as a strong leader, who wants to strengthen state institutions. Last-minute polarization caused by Saakashvili’s sudden return, hit his party hard, however, 8% effectively makes him a kingmaker in several local councils. He now faces a dilemma, whether to form a majority with the GD and “prove” that he is, after all, Ivanishvili’s stooge, or liaise with the UNM and “prove” that he was playing Misha’s game all along. So far, Gakharia has walked a thin rope. Responding to the dilemma, he proposed to hold "open trilateral talks" with the GD and the UNM, which should facilitate the formation of "balanced councils." By doing so he postponed the decision on local council majorities until after the elections, though the decision will have to be made once the second rounds are over and the dust settles.
Smaller pro-Western opposition parties appear to have hit the rock bottom. Failure to unite and show strength led to Lelo for Georgia receiving 2.7%, European Georgia 1.65%, the Third Force - Strategy the Builder - 1.34%, the Labor Party - 1.37%, Girchi - More Freedom - 1.44% and Helen Khoshtaria’s Droa - 0.61%. Many of these parties, however, entered in a pre-election coalition with the UNM, thus maintaining their chances of survival, granted that the opposition wins.
These elections once again showed that violations during the pre-election campaign and on election day are still a huge problem. International assessments were once again critical. According to the OSCE/ODIHR, the “widespread and consistent” nature of the allegations overall raised concern “about voters’ ability to cast their vote “free of fear of retribution”, at odds with OSCE commitments and international standards.” Michael Gahler, chair of the European Parliament delegation noted “the cases of intimidation aiming at the withdrawal of opposition candidacies, pressure on civil servants, misuse of administrative resources, huge imbalances of financial means” as some of the persistent problems.
